Monday, March 19, 2012

How Will Russia React to a Continuing U.S. Presence in Central Asia?

As tensions heat up between Russia and the United States over the Middle East, another struggle may be reemerging in Central Asia over U.S. access to a crucial air base there. Top U.S. officials flew to Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to negotiate extended use of the Manas Transit Center, which the Kyrgyz government has repeatedly tried to close but which remains crucial to the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. Yet amid international tension, experts say Manas is perhaps an unexpected point of agreement between the two major powers.

Russia is undoubtedly at the top of U.S. officials’ minds with its stubborn resistance to efforts aimed at the halting Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s alleged massacre of innocent civilians. On Iran, meanwhile, Russia has warned time and again – as talk of a possible strike periodically surfaces in the U.S. media – that attacking the Islamic republic would produce serious consequences for the entire region. Yet perhaps Russia is distracted by the Middle East fiasco from the more immediate threat in its own backyard.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was in Bishkek on March 14 in a bid to convince the Kyrgyz that Manas is a crucial cog in the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, which was recently compromised by a series of blunders. The new Kyrgyz administration, headed by recently elected President Almazbek Atambayev, has repeatedly called for the United States to leave once the lease expires in 2014, and has been earlier noted for its pro-Russian orientation. Read More